Bush's Deficit Plan Is All in the Math

Bush's Deficit Plan Is All in the Math:

"In his State of the Union address Wednesday, Bush said his fiscal 2006 budget, which he will unveil today, 'stays on track to cut the deficit in half by 2009.'
..........................

'It doesn't quite compute,' said Isabel V. Sawhill, director of economic studies at the Brookings Institution think tank, who foresees a shortfall slightly larger in 2009 than now.

It is the 2004 deficit that Bush is promising to cut in half, but he's not starting with the actual 2004 deficit of $412 billion.
......................................

If Bush were to start with the actual 2004 figure, his goal would be a deficit of $206 billion — $54.5 billion more.

There are more twists. Bush proposes to cut the deficit in half not in dollars but as a share of the economy.
...................................

Finally, the budget that the president will send to Congress will, like his past budgets, omit some major deficit-raising items.
........................................

Most of the cost of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars will not be included in the budget. Instead, it will be sent to Congress as a supplemental budget request for 2006, just as the administration recently announced an $80-billion supplemental request for the current fiscal year.

Nor will the cost of introducing private investment accounts to Social Security — $754 billion over the first 10 years alone — be found in the budget, according to administration officials.

That cost will be borrowed, Cheney said... . He acknowledged that it would also be necessary to borrow 'trillions more' after the first decade... .....................

Bush's tax cuts, whatever their economic merit, have taken their toll on government income. Tax revenue fell in each of Bush's first three years in office, though this year it is projected to rise to a record level.

But as a share of the nation's economic output, tax payments to the government fell to 16.3% last year, the lowest level since 1959."